In 2020, international trade will enter the winter under the triple crisis of epidemic situation, world economic recession and damaged multilateralism. In order to implement the central government's spirit of stabilizing foreign trade, support foreign trade enterprises to resume production more quickly, help enterprises expand their international business, and prevent international business risks, the Beijing International Economic and Trade Information Center organized a public lecture on "the response of British and American international markets and enterprises". He Weiwen, senior research fellow of Chongyang Institute of finance, Renmin University of China and former commercial counselor of the Consulates General in San Francisco and New York, deeply analyzed Sino US trade relations in 2020 and taught enterprises how to deal with them.
This year's world economic recession can be said to be the most serious since the end of World War II. Although China's economy first turned to positive growth in the second quarter, the world's major economies, such as the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, are still in negative growth. The world economy rebounded in the form of Nike, with a sharp decline and a slow recovery. The prospect is highly uncertain. Factors such as disruption or disruption of supply chain operations, increased logistics costs, and trade restrictions reduced World Trade by an additional 10%. The lack of international binding force, the suspension of WTO's three basic functions of negotiation, supervision and implementation, and the inability to do anything about unilateralism and hegemonism have made the world structure more turbulent. He Weiwen reminded that Sino US economic and trade is still developing in difficulties. According to customs statistics, China's imports and exports to the United States have continued to grow since the second quarter. In July, China's exports to the United States increased by 15.6% year-on-year, and imports increased by 24.5%.
Under the impact of Sino US trade war and epidemic situation, some enterprises have formulated the "China + strategy", that is, to prepare a reserve, but the main market is still China. In an earlier interview, Kouri Daoming, director of the Shanghai Office of Japan's Trade Promotion Association, said in an interview that the association's survey of Japanese enterprises showed that more than 90% of the enterprises had not changed their development plans in China. Although the Japanese government has allocated US $2.2 billion to support the production and relocation of enterprises related to people's livelihood, such as masks, medical supplies, automobiles and so on, enterprises believe that where the market is, where the production line and supply chain should be. During the epidemic, Toyota announced that it would cooperate with FAW to invest in the construction of an electric vehicle factory in Tianjin, and Shiseido also set up a research and development institution in Shanghai. "There is no second China in the world." According to woodke, President of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, the epidemic will challenge the future business model of EU enterprises. Enterprises may seek diversified investment in Asia to diversify their risks, but they will not normally consider leaving the Chinese market. This shows that trade is actually the behavior between enterprises and can be controlled by non-governmental behavior.
Similarly, according to the survey of the US China Trade Commission, 94% of the sales of American enterprises in China are oriented to the Chinese market. According to he Weiwen's analysis, the anxiety in the United States mainly comes from high-tech. In 2019, Apple's sales volume will reach 267.683 billion US dollars, with a profit of 57.326 billion US dollars. One of the important reasons is that a large number of mobile phones are assembled and sold in China. The Chinese market accounts for more than 50% of the sales of major US semiconductor companies such as Qualcomm. Leaving China, these enterprises will not only greatly reduce the global sales scale, unable to obtain enough profits to support the huge R & D expenses, but also have a survival crisis. The BCG research report points out that the financial healthy semiconductor industry is of strategic importance to the United States. If the United States loses a certain global share, it will be replaced by European and Asian companies. At that time, South Korea or China may occupy the first place in the world market share.
"China and the United States have formed a solid and close division of labor in the global supply chain." He Weiwen said that the relationship between globalization and trade and investment between China and the United States is an objective economic law. The political policy and political will of the United States can not overcome the economic law, nor can it kick china out of the global industrial chain.
He Weiwen reminded that the law of global economy will not change. We should be based at home and strive to break through. Basic research and high-tech innovation are going to be world-class. The focus of independent innovation has shifted from market-oriented / capital oriented applied technologies to basic research and cutting-edge technologies that are vital to the country's future; expanding domestic demand and realizing domestic and international dual cycle. At the same time, it is necessary to attract talents, funds and technology from all countries through high-level opening-up, so as to realize struggle and cooperation with the United States.
At the enterprise level, enterprises need to conduct serious investigation and research, carefully analyze the import and export environment of the United States according to the product scope and development plan, and find us multinational companies to cooperate, and contact with relevant chambers of commerce such as the American Chamber of Commerce in China, the US China Trade Commission, etc. "Businesses can look down and face the States and cities of the United States, businesses and the public." He analyzed that as long as the business meets the needs of local social and economic development and helps to increase employment and tax revenue, it will receive positive response and support.