The global epidemic is still raging, and the world economy has been seriously impacted by the epidemic. It is an urgent task for the world to strengthen cooperation in anti epidemic and vaccine research and development, overcome the new coronavirus and epidemic pandemic, eliminate the threat of public health security, and get rid of the economic and social crisis.
Nearly 500 million jobs disappeared almost overnight
The latest issue of the economist pointed out that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the world economy was the biggest since World War II. The blockade and falling consumer spending led to an implosion in the labor market, with nearly 500 million full-time jobs disappearing almost overnight. With factories closed and borders closed, world trade shuddered. Only the unprecedented intervention of central banks in financial markets, government assistance to workers and bankrupt enterprises, and the expansion of government budget deficits to near wartime levels can deeper economic disasters be avoided.
It is inevitable to suffer the impact, and the losses and collapses caused by it are almost synchronous. The impact on some countries, regions and industries is particularly obvious, and some are even on the verge of collapse. Tourism and other service industries are the hardest hit areas. According to the latest data released by cirium, a travel data company, quoted by CNBC television channel on October 8, 43 commercial airlines around the world have been in serious difficulties due to the epidemic since January this year. Without government intervention and support, more airlines will fall into large-scale bankruptcy in the first six months of the crisis.
Industry experts said that despite the financial aid, most of the world's airlines in the rest of 2020 "prospects are not encouraging.". The International Air Transport Association warned this week that the industry will burn $77 billion in cash in the second half of 2020, and that global air traffic may not return to its level in 2019 until 2024, as the economy recovers slowly and will continue to lose about $5 billion or $6 billion a month by 2021.
In fact, the tragic situation of the global aviation industry is only the tip of the iceberg that has suffered heavy losses to the world economy and trade under the epidemic situation. Numerous tourist attractions, hotels, restaurants, coffee shops and bars around the world are still partially or even completely suspended. What is more serious is that the work and life of a large number of people in these industries are not guaranteed. American Airlines are already laying off a large number of employees. A number of companies have said that if the trump administration and Congress can not reach an agreement on further anti epidemic and rescue bills, they will be forced to lay off a large number of employees and lay off workers for a long time.
Because the prevention and control is firm and powerful, China and some other countries have quickly and effectively controlled the epidemic. Up to now, China novel coronavirus pneumonia has not been confirmed for more than 50 consecutive days. During the 8 days of national day, the total number of domestic tourists has been 637 million. The average daily passenger traffic volume is about 90% of the same period last year. The transportation industry and tourism industry have basically returned to normal.
However, in most countries of the world, the epidemic situation is still grim. In addition to the United States, some countries in Europe, South America and South Asia are still experiencing a significant increase in newly diagnosed cases, and the death toll is rising. In some regions, even the second wave of epidemic outbreaks has broken out. Anxiety and fear of the epidemic situation are enveloping people's minds, and the economies of many countries are still unable to get rid of the suffering of epidemic disasters.
The epidemic has turned the world upside down
On October 6, in a speech in Washington, D.C., President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Georgieva, said, "our world has been completely transformed by the epidemic - millions of people have lost their lives and billions of people have suffered the economic impact of the epidemic. The impact of the epidemic on low-income countries is so severe that we may have to face the "lost generation.".
The world economy under the epidemic situation presents three major characteristics. First, there are three sharp declines: the rapid decline of economic growth, the sharp decline of international trade, and the sharp decline of industrial chain and supply chain; the second is three sharp increases: the sharp increase of unemployment rate, the sharp increase of government budget deficit, and the sharp increase of national debt; the third is the three pauses: the sharp pause of factories and enterprises, the sharp pause of service industry, and the sharp pause of tourism, aviation and transportation.
At present, there is no specific international statistical data on how much damage the epidemic has caused to the world economy. It is estimated that there will be no accurate and complete data in the future, because it is difficult to make statistics. The IMF was originally optimistic about the global economic growth this year. According to the world economic outlook report released on January 20, this year, the global economic growth rate is expected to increase from 2.9% estimated in 2019 to 3.3% in 2020 and 3.4% in 2021. However, after the outbreak of the epidemic, the world economic growth forecast released by IMF in April has become rather pessimistic. Its world economic outlook report predicts that the global economy will shrink sharply by 3% in 2020 due to the epidemic, which is much worse than the situation during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Even if the epidemic situation gradually subsides in the second half of 2020, the prevention and control measures are gradually cancelled, and the policy support measures help to restore normal economic activities, the global economy is expected to drop sharply in 2020, and it is only possible to grow by 5.8% in 2021.
In June, the IMF released the "updated version" of the world economic outlook report again, saying that the global growth rate in 2020 is expected to be – 4.9%, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than that predicted in the April 2020 world economic outlook report. The report acknowledged that novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic had a negative impact on economic activity in the first half of 2020, which is more serious than expected.