"Momentum like a rainbow"! Many people use this word to describe the recent surge in the RMB exchange rate.
From the appreciation curve of RMB exchange rate since the end of May, you can feel how strong the appreciation of RMB is.
On September 16, the central rate of RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was US $1 to RMB 6.7825, up 397 basis points compared with the previous trading day, breaking the 6.8 barrier.
In the long run, the central rate of RMB against US dollar on May 29 was 7.1316. In just over three months, the central rate of RMB against US dollar appreciated by 3491 basis points.
The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is "rising". On the morning of September 16, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates both rose above the 6.77 level.
Why does RMB rise sharply?
As for the reasons for the strong RMB exchange rate, Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told China news. Com: first, China's economic fundamentals continued to improve; second, the US dollar index continued to fall, and non-U.S. currencies, including RMB, showed a trend of appreciation; third, international investors were optimistic about the prospects of China's economy and RMB assets, and foreign capital continued to flow in China's capital market drives the appreciation of RMB.
The improvement of China's economic fundamentals can be felt from the latest economic data released. According to the economic data for August released by the National Bureau of statistics on September 15, consumption and other key indicators have changed from negative to positive for the first time this year.
Specifically, in August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.5% year-on-year, which was the first positive growth since this year; from January to August, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 0.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate turning from negative to positive; from January to August, the export increased by 0.8%, and the cumulative growth rate realized positive growth for the first time; the sales volume of commercial housing increased by 1.6% from January to August, which also turned positive for the first time.
Mingming, chief analyst of fixed income of CITIC Securities, said that under the background of global central banks' easing, the Central Bank of China maintained prudent and steady monetary policy during the epidemic period, the interest rate difference between China and the United States remained high, and the attraction of RMB assets was significantly enhanced, which also promoted the strength of RMB exchange rate.
What is the impact of RMB's sharp appreciation?
For the common people, the appreciation of RMB means that the money in their hands is more valuable. If you travel abroad, study abroad and shop, it will be more cost-effective. Because of the same money, you can buy more goods and services when you get more dollars.
Exchange 100000 US dollars to save 30000 yuan
We can simply calculate an account: on May 29, the central exchange rate of RMB to us dollar was 7.1316, and on September 16, it was 6.7825. From 7.1316 to 6.7825, if the exchange rate was 100 thousand US dollars, 71316 thousand yuan was needed at that time. Today, it only needs 67825 yuan, which can save 3491 yuan.
Wen Bin said that for residents, the appreciation of the RMB is conducive to traveling abroad, shopping abroad, studying abroad, reducing the cost of overseas consumption and increasing the welfare of consumers. At the same time, international investors are optimistic about China's capital market, and the continuous net inflow of international funds will also help domestic residents to hold RMB assets and maintain the stable income of assets.
Good for import, bad for export
For enterprises, the stronger RMB against the US dollar is good for import enterprises, and it will bring certain pressure for export enterprises.
According to Wen Bin's analysis, from the perspective of import enterprises, the appreciation of the RMB, especially against the US dollar and a basket of currencies, will reduce procurement costs and increase profits.
However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the external demand slows down and the appreciation of RMB will lead to the increase of export product cost, which will affect the international market competitiveness of export enterprises' products. At the same time, there will also be exchange rate risk, which may lead to exchange loss. Therefore, export enterprises should take measures to prevent and avoid exchange rate risk.
At present, many enterprises have taken measures to reduce the exchange loss. Hongbai Xincai, a listed company, recently announced that export accounts for a large proportion of the company's operating income, and plans to carry out forward foreign exchange settlement and sales business of no more than US $50 million, so as to reduce the impact of future exchange rate fluctuations of US dollar and euro against RMB on the company's operating performance.
Clearly, the strength of the RMB exchange rate may continue, but considering the possible risks in the future, including global risk aversion, Sino US relations and asymmetric capital control, the RMB exchange rate may show a slow slope appreciation trend, and the short-term RMB exchange rate range may be 6.7-6.8. The continuous appreciation of the exchange rate may have a certain impact on China's export and manufacturing industry.
"We should increase policy support for export-oriented enterprises and increase financial, financial and export tax rebates." Wen bin suggested.
Wen bin pointed out that the RMB exchange rate is a reflection of China's economic fundamentals. In the short term, as China's economy continues to pick up, international investors are optimistic about the capital market, and foreign investment continues to flow in. These factors are expected to further promote the appreciation of the RMB. Exchange rate stability is conducive to economic and financial stability, and they complement each other. In the long run, the RMB exchange rate will remain at a balanced and reasonable level.