Germany's Harley Institute of economics estimates that if the UK and the European Union do not negotiate a future relationship agreement by the end of the year, resulting in the return of bilateral trade relations within the framework of the world trade organization, EU enterprises may lose more than 700000 jobs.
The financial times disclosed the content of this unpublished report on the 27th. The report said that if the trade enterprises with Britain outside the EU were included, the loss of jobs caused by "brexit without agreement" could reach 1 million. Such a large-scale employment shock highlights the importance of future relationship negotiations between Britain and Europe. The two sides have made limited progress in several rounds of negotiations so far.
The report estimates that if the UK "leaves without agreement", Germany, Europe's largest economy, will suffer the most, and enterprises exporting products to the UK and their suppliers may lose more than 176000 jobs. France, Poland and Italy could lose 80000, 78000 and 72000 jobs respectively. British companies, which provide services for EU companies' exports to the UK, will also lose 22000 jobs.
In terms of the proportion of unemployed people in the labor market, the smaller countries in the EU are more seriously affected. Ireland could lose 35000 jobs, close to 2% of the country's workforce. Between 0.5% and 3.4% of the workforce in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Belgium and Maltese are likely to be unemployed.
The report also predicts that if the UK "leaves without agreement", the EU's imports of goods and services may plummet by 41%, resulting in a 0.25% drop in the overall output value of the 27 EU countries. At that time, 10% tariff will be imposed on the whole vehicle and parts exported from the EU to the UK, which will seriously impact the automobile industry of Germany, Spain, Czech Republic, Belgium, Slovakia and other EU countries. EU agricultural products are also likely to be subject to higher tariffs, which will drag down Bulgarian agricultural exporters and French and Dutch wholesale trade exporters.
A similar estimate was made in a report released last week by the London School of economics and economics. According to a report commissioned by Danish dairy giant Ehrlich Chenxi, the UK's "non agreement brexit" may lead to a 63% reduction in the total amount of agricultural products and food imported from the EU. Some EU dairy products such as yoghurt, milk and cream may stop exporting to the UK, and the prices of many brand products may rise as a result, with an average range of about 26.5%. At present, 40% of the agricultural products and food consumed by British households come from the European Union.
Oliver holtmole, deputy director of the Harley Institute of economics, said that if the UK withdraws from the EU single market and customs union "without an agreement", EU enterprises may split up the market share left by British enterprises, but the effect is "difficult to quantify in advance". What's more, the report's projections may not be fully realistic, because "companies have other coping options at the same time.".
The report also emphasizes that it only assesses "the partial impact of a negative trade shock" and "does not take into account the general macroeconomic equilibrium effect". It also does not intend to assess the possible overall impact of brexit on the employment situation in the UK or any other country.
The Financial Times reported that the Harley Economic Research Institute report is an updated version of the initial report in February last year, which is under peer review and is expected to be published in a few weeks. (Ocean) (special feature of Xinhua News Agency)